Ember

Ember is a pioneering public AI prediction engine that operates on the principle of transparency and accountability in AI-generated forecasts. By using three independent AI models—Claude from Anthropic, Grok from xAI, and Gemini from Google—Ember evaluates live Polymarket markets every day at 7 AM EST. Each AI model calls the market independently without consultation, producing a unique probability assessment for various events. When the predictions of these models diverge from the crowd by 10 or more points, it signals a high-conviction opportunity. This approach ensures that every prediction is timestamped and remains unedited, fostering a trustworthy environment for bettors and analysts. By tracking accuracy using Brier scores and providing post-mortem analyses for any incorrect calls, Ember builds a public record that enhances its credibility. The platform serves investors, analysts, and anyone interested in reliable predictions based on diverse AI insights, making it a valuable tool for decision-making in uncertain environments.

Independent AI Predictions

Ember utilizes three distinct AI models that independently analyze market data without collaboration. This ensures a diverse range of perspectives and enhances the reliability of predictions by capturing different reasoning styles and information sources.

High-Conviction Signals

When the probability assessments of Ember's AI models diverge from the Polymarket real-money crowd by 10 or more points, it generates a high-conviction signal. This feature highlights opportunities where the crowd may be mispricing outcomes, allowing users to capitalize on these discrepancies.

Real-Time Data Integration

Ember synthesizes data from 20 different sources, including prediction markets, bookmaker lines, AI research feeds, and real-time sentiment analysis. This comprehensive data integration ensures that predictions are based on the latest information available, providing users with an edge in their betting strategies.

Timestamped Calls and Accountability

Every prediction made by Ember is timestamped before the outcome, ensuring transparency and accountability. Users can trust that no edits or deletions occur after the fact, allowing for a clear track record of performance and outcomes.

Market Analysis for Investors

Ember is ideal for investors looking to make data-driven decisions in prediction markets. By leveraging the independent analyses of three AI models, users can identify high-confidence opportunities that may be overlooked by the crowd.

Enhanced Betting Strategies

Gamblers and bettors can utilize Ember’s predictions to inform their betting strategies. The high-conviction signals highlight potential discrepancies in market odds, allowing users to place informed bets based on AI insights.

Research and Development in AI

Researchers can use Ember’s public record of predictions and outcomes to study the effectiveness of different AI models. The detailed post-mortem analyses provided for incorrect calls offer valuable insights into AI performance and decision-making processes.

Competitive Analysis for Businesses

Businesses can leverage Ember to monitor market trends and competitor actions. By examining predictions related to specific events, companies can adjust their strategies and stay ahead in a rapidly changing market environment.

How does Ember ensure the accuracy of its predictions?

Ember tracks the accuracy of its predictions using Brier scores, a metric that evaluates both the accuracy and confidence of predictions. This systematic approach allows for continuous improvement and accountability.

What happens if an AI model consistently performs poorly?

Ember conducts post-mortem analyses for every wrong call, evaluating the factors that led to the incorrect prediction. This process not only enhances the models but also builds a reliable historical record for users.

Can I access Ember's predictions in real-time?

Yes, subscribers receive Ember's predictions at 7 AM EST, prior to public release. This timing gives users a strategic advantage by allowing them to act on insights before they become widely known.

What types of events does Ember predict?

Ember predicts a wide range of events across various domains, including politics, technology, and sports. The platform focuses on high-stakes scenarios where market fluctuations are likely, making it a versatile tool for different types of users.